Medium- and heavy-duty value of technology improvement
2022-01-0643
03/29/2022
- Event
- Content
- Improvements in vehicle technology have an impact on the purchase price of the vehicle and its operating cost. In this study, we assume the monetary benefit of a technology improvement includes the potential reduction in vehicle price from using cheaper or smaller components, as well as the discounted value of the fuel cost savings. As technology progresses over time, the value and benefit of improving technology varies as well. For example, when a battery is heavy and expensive, a percentage increase in energy density and percentage reduction in cost are worth more than when the battery is already lighter and cheaper. In this study, we look at the value of a few technologies (battery energy density, electric drive efficiency, tire rolling resistance, aerodynamics, light weighting) and assign a dollar value to its associated savings. We show how the dollar value changes with the level of technology achievement, the powertrain selection and the vehicle type. We highlight for instance how the savings for conventional vehicles are primarily driven by the reduction in fuel expenditure while for electric vehicles, the savings are driven in large part by the reduction in battery size that is allowed by the technology improvement. We also show that for conventional vehicles, the value of technology improvement is likely to increase over time as we expect diesel prices to increase over the next decades while for electric vehicles, the value of technology improvement is likely to decrease as battery energy density increases and cost decreases. This study focuses on medium- and heavy-duty applications where cost of driving is of paramount importance. The savings realized from each technology improvement serve as an upper limit for how much can be spent to acquire that improved technology.
- Citation
- Freyermuth, V., Vijayagopal, R., and Rousseau, A., "Medium- and heavy-duty value of technology improvement ," SAE Technical Paper 2022-01-0643, 2022, .